Overview of the Elections

This will be the fourth general election called by a Conservative PM since 2010. The House of Commons was dissolved on 30th May, known as prorogation, which refers to the formal end of a parliamentary session. This brought nearly all parliamentary business to a halt, including most bills, motions, and questions.

Rishi Sunak has been Prime Minister since October 2022. He is expected to lead the Conservative party into the next election. The main opposition party is Labour, led by Sir Kier Starmer, a former director of public prosecutions.

While the next election is seen as a two-horse race between Labour and the Conservative party, other political parties are also involved, many with strong regional support. These include The Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats, and the Democratic Unionist Party, the three largest parties after Labour and the Conservatives.

The new Reform Party may also impact the results by siphoning votes from the Conservatives. These smaller parties could be essential in forming a coalition government should Labour or the Conservatives fail to win an overall majority.

 

The big issues at stake in the upcoming election include:

  • The economy: The country is still struggling with high inflation and sluggish economic growth
  • Immigration: People are concerned about the thousands of economic migrants and asylum seekers entering the country in recent years
  • Healthcare: The state of the NHS is a significant concern with long treatment waiting lists and a lack of hospital beds
  • The environment: The Conservatives have backtracked on many of their environmental commitments, which critics say is wrong at a time when we are trying to tackle climate change

Potential Changes in Housing Policies

The UK housing market is a hot topic, and the upcoming election will highlight stark differences in housing policies between Labour and the Conservatives.

 

Labour’s proposed reforms aim to improve the private rental sector:

  • Tackling the Rental Crisis: A comprehensive approach to housing supply, including planning and affordable homes.
  • National Landlords Register: Ensuring landlords meet quality standards.
  • Ending No-Fault Evictions: Abolishing Section 21 while maintaining landlord rights to evict problematic tenants.
  • Rent Stabilisation: Linking rent increases to local wages and inflation.
  • Incentivising Landlords: Making long-term rentals attractive and rewarding.

 

The Conservatives remain committed to their ambitious target of 300,000 new homes annually. They also extended the stamp duty holiday, offering relief to buyers until March 2025.

 

In 2023, Michael Gove unveiled a plan for radical housing reform, which included:

  • Regenerating 20 key areas to create thriving communities.
  • Promoting high-rise living to maximise land use in cities.
  • Empowering communities to shape their neighbourhoods.
  • Banning unsafe cladding to ensure safety and protect leaseholders.

 

The upcoming election will determine which of the parties’ contrasting visions for the housing market will become a reality. Both parties offer distinct approaches to addressing the challenges faced by renters and homeowners alike.

Impact on the Sales Market

Election outcomes can influence property sales in various ways, both in the short term and in the long term. Pre-election uncertainty often leads to a slowdown in property transactions as buyers and sellers adopt a cautious “wait-and-see” approach.

However, a post-election bounce in activity is common as uncertainty dissipates and confidence returns. The specific nature of this bounce and any temporary price fluctuations depend on the election outcome and anticipated policy changes.

New government policies, such as tax reforms, housing initiatives, and economic measures, can significantly impact the property market. These changes and overall market sentiment and confidence in the new government influence long-term investment decisions. Additionally, different property sectors may be affected differently depending on the government’s priorities, with some industries experiencing growth while others face potential challenges.

Expert Overview

Elections do create ripples in the property market. But it is not as simple as prices soaring with one party or plummeting with another. While the initial change creates some fluctuations, the deeper market keeps ticking along as it always has. While a change in government might lead to a brief flurry of activity or a moment of hesitation, the bigger picture – the number of homes available, the eagerness of buyers, and the overall economic climate – truly shapes the future of the property market.

Imagine 100 homes changing hands in the month of the election. Now, picture the months before and after: would you expect a noticeable difference? In most UK property markets, the answer is no. Elections don’t seem to rock the boat that much.

The one exception? High-end London real estate. Here, a flurry of activity often precedes the big vote, like everyone’s trying to secure their dream home before the political landscape shifts. But once the votes are cast, things usually return to their usual rhythm.

Even looking at quicker indicators, like when people get the green light for their mortgages, there is no clear sign that elections cause a frenzy or a freeze. The market keeps ticking along, seemingly unfazed by the drama unfolding in the political sphere.

 

What Landlords and Sellers Need to Do

Landlords should stay up-to-date on the ever-changing landlord laws. By staying informed, you are not just following the rules; you are taking a proactive approach to help avoid costly surprises. With a likely change of government, keeping up with new policies will help you navigate tenant disputes and avoid legal battles that could occur in the future.

As property buyers and sellers prepare their next moves, it can help to understand past election trends to capitalise on market momentum. While it is true that a small percentage of property buyers will continue to wait and see, as they do at times of political or economic uncertainty, they will always be vastly outnumbered by buyers and sellers encouraged by the strengthening economic outlook.

 

Here are some valuable resources for landlords who want to stay informed about UK housing policy:

  • GOV.UK: The official government website is a primary source for legislation, consultations, and guidance on housing issues.
  • The Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (MHCLG): This department is responsible for housing policy and provides updates and resources specific to the private rental sector.
  • Your Local Council Website: Check your council’s website for local housing regulations, licensing requirements, and specific schemes in your area.
  • National Residential Landlords Association (NRLA): The NRLA offers comprehensive guidance, training, and resources for landlords, including updates on policy changes.
  • British Landlords Association (BLA):  The national association fighting for the rights and interests of residential and commercial landlords across the UK.

 

Conclusion

In conclusion, the UK property market in early 2024 presented a mixed picture of optimism and apprehension. Positive economic indicators such as lower inflation, moderate house price growth, and the anticipation of a base rate cut were tempered by the surprise announcement of a snap general election.

While political uncertainty has historically dampened market sentiment, the question remains whether the UK population’s recent experience with turbulent events has increased their tolerance for such instability.

Despite the political upheaval, the property market demonstrated resilience in the first four months of the year with a rise in listings, sales, and overall activity. The coming months will reveal whether this resilience can withstand the added pressure of a general election and what the future holds for the UK property market.